About that Inverted Yield Curve Idea

L: If you've been around Jim for any time at all, you know all about the signal for an upcoming recession: an inverted Treasury yield curve lasting four months or longer will precede a recession by as much as 19 months (that was the one before the 2008 recession). So now, there's all kind of talk in the news about the yield curve inverting as the Federal Open Market Committee continues to raise the target for the Federal Funds rate a quarter point at a time while the 10-year Treasury yield declines toward that number. There was a recent excellent article by Greg Ip in the January 9 edition of The Wall Street Journal that asks a very simple question. Does an inverted yield curve CAUSE a re

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