Small Business Owners are Really, Really Optimistic

J: Back in 1973, my good friend Bill Dunkelberg was a Professor of Economics at Purdue University and the Associate Director of the Credit Research Center there. He began a relationship with the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) in October 1973. Today he is their Chief Economist and an Emeritus Professor of Economics at Temple University after a long and distinguished stint as Dean of the Fox School of Business. From 1973 through the fourth quarter of 1985, he conducted surveys of NFIB members and used the results to construct the Small Business Optimism Index. The surveys have been conducted monthly beginning in January 1986. As the chart shows, the index hit a new reco

Bad Weather is a Bad Influence

L: All right, having trouble getting the economist to write. So in the meantime, here's a pretty interesting article about forecasting--weather forecasting AND economic forecasting. If you've been paying attention to economic reporting over the years, you know that there can be large weather effects in any given quarter of economic activity. Here's a prediction for the rest of this year from the Accuweather website: "2018 Fall, Winter Weather Expected to Drastically Influence Consumer Spending in US"

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