Sometimes there is no great benefit in living with an economic forecaster. All that happens is that I hear one thing at home and read another in the news. Who to believe?

At the moment, here are my conflicts. The resident economist says that this was a fine Christmas shopping season, with retail sales up over last year. Daniel Gross in Newsweek writes: “It’s now becoming clear that the Christmas season was tough on everyone–and not just Wal-Mart and Target, where the masses shop. …[For example,] Tiffany & Co. was thought to be impregnable to forces of nature. Its sales held up even as exhausted consumers pooped out. But last week the chain reported that same-store sales slumped in the United States in December. Lexus sales were off 7.2 percent in December from the year before.”

And then there is the disposable income problem. I swear I’ve heard Jim say that consumers have more disposable now than ever before. Yet, again, Gross writes: “The Census Bureau tells me real household median income in 2006 was actually 2.2 percent lower than it was in 1999.”

I realize the economic data are conflicting and that it is quite impossible to determine exactly what is happening in the US economy at the moment. But you’d think we could at least agree on whether this was a good or bad Christmas season and whether consumers do or do not have disposable income at their, well, disposal.

Help!

All right, maybe we’re headed for a recession (though don’t tell my resident economist that as there are still plenty of positive data points). Maybe the growth rate for the US will drop to 0 or slightly less. Admittedly people will lose jobs and that is not a good thing for those people, that’s for sure. But I’m pretty sure that most Wall Street traders aren’t all that afraid of other people losing jobs. And that is what puzzles me. What exactly ARE they afraid of?

In echoing the ideas of Fareed Zakariah, Americans are currently possessed by fear–fear of recession, fear of immigrants, fear of terrorists, fear of climate, fear of fuel…. All of these fears have some basis in fact, but the paralyzing, reactive nature of these fears that are overwhelming all good sense is unglueing our society.

So we have a recession. Historically, our recessions are getting shorter and milder. They tend to reset certain bubbly sectors of the economy and give us a good footing for going forward. They are temporary. They cause some pain. But there should be a difference between fear of a sprained ankle and fear of ALS and somehow we are unable to moderate our emotions on this.

I suspect that the media play a big part in this (I hate to say that because it almost sounds trite). The first problem is that reporting is done to sensationalize the latest data. “Retail sales are declining” (well, yes, they are lower than last month, but on a year-over-year basis, this past December had record sales), “housing prices are falling nationally” (well, yes, but only in the few MSAs that are reported in the Case-Schiller housing index). The second problem is that with 3 business television channels, the repetition and continuing analysis of news (which by definition is exceptional and not “normal”) creates a constant drumbeat of impending doom.

This fear orientation is dangerous. It’s dangerous for the economy (which is highly sensitive to emotions–expectations, confidence, etc.). It’s dangerous for our foreign policy (pre-emptive wars). It’s dangerous for our domestic policy (reduce foreign trade, reduce legal immigration, build a wall).

Stop being afraid. What good does it do you?

For a variety of reasons (not that a person would need any), we vacationed in Hawai’i over Christmas. We spent a few days on Oha’u, but the bulk of our time was spent on the Big Island. Because we’ve been here multiple times, there’s no big blog or anything, but we did enjoy several places that I’d like to mention.

First, I don’t remember seeing snow on both Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa before, but we sure did this time. Also, on days without clouds on top of Mauna Kea, we had great views of some of observatories. They were teensy-tinesy of course, but we could still see them!

We hiked to the Green Sand Beach. This beach is comprised mostly of olivine so it definitely has a greenish hue. However, in an area along the route (which we did not find on our own—we got a ride back from a local man who turns out to be guide, which we didn’t figure out until we got back in our car—we are such duhs sometimes) there is a pocket of sand nestled among the lava that is green, green, green. The beach was good, this pocket of olivine was incredible. Sometimes we just get lucky.

One of the newer things on the island is the comeback of the green sea turtles (honu). These days they bask on beaches, regardless of the number of people that may be around. People we saw were very good about keeping some distance from the turtles (like 6 feet), but the turtles remained unfazed at the approaches, the photos, the talking. I was thrilled and grateful for such a chance to see them.

I am no lover of the ocean, and snorkeling is not one of my better sports, but we did snorkel at one beach. (Jim went scuba-diving twice!) Just reporting that despite a lot of people in the water and on the beach, the snorkeling at Kahalu’u was good enough for me. It was an easy entry in (I didn’t inhale water, get bowled over by waves, or get beat up by lava) and there were plenty of fish around. Though this beach often has lots of turtles, we didn’t see any on our day. But otherwise, it was just the right-sized adventure for me.

We drove to Hilo once, mostly to return to the Hawai’i Tropical Botanical Garden a few miles north of Hilo. I remembered that I liked it, but that was ALL I could remember. Let’s just say that was a good-enough memory. This Garden is fantastic, with many amazing flowers, nice waterfalls and, at least at the time we were there, a pounding surf on its southern border. It was well worth the drive. (There’s a sign on the path by the water noting that waves often crash onto the path and could drag you back to sea. Gulp.)

And, finally, I’d recommend the “Revealed” guidebooks if you ever visit any of the islands. Andrew Doughty (and friends) have written books for each island, called “Maui Revealed,” “Big Island Revealed,” etc. They are very helpful in finding cool things to visit.

Aloha!